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Tuesday, October 3, 2023

MLB playoff projections: Dodgers needs to be No. 2 seed in NL. Who else is in? Specific Occasions

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Clinching the Nationwide League West title as early as they did permits the Dodgers to foresee step one of their postseason with cheap certainty.

The Dodgers shall be seeded No. 2 among the many six NL playoff groups, behind the East champion Atlanta Braves and in entrance of the Central champion, which because of a spectacular skid by the Chicago Cubs is sort of sure to be the Milwaukee Brewers.

Because the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, the Braves and Dodgers are assured a bye by the best-of-three wild-card spherical, then maintain home-field benefit within the best-of-five division sequence in a 2-2-1 format. Ought to they advance to the best-of-seven NL Championship Collection, the Dodgers would have home-field benefit in opposition to any opponent besides the Braves in a 2-3-2 format.

The group with the higher common season file will get home-field benefit within the World Collection. Solely the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays amongst American League playoff groups have a greater file than the Dodgers, and none have a greater file than the Braves.

Within the NL Division Collection, the Dodgers will play the winner of the wild-card sequence between the Brewers and the No. 6 seeded group whereas the Braves will play the winner of the wild-card sequence between the No. 4- and No. 5-seeded groups.

The Philadelphia Phillies are all however locked in as the highest wild-card group, or No. 4 seed. 5 groups are battling for the final two wild-card spots, with the Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins holding a tenuous mathematical edge over the Cubs and Cincinnati Reds. The San Francisco Giants stay within the hunt however have solely a 13% likelihood of reaching the postseason, in response to Fangraphs.

The Braves and Dodgers shall be idle for 5 days after the common season concludes Oct. 1 as a result of all 4 division sequence are scheduled to start Oct. 7.

Within the American League, the Orioles’ current surge provides them an 80% chance of profitable the East. The Rays, two video games again of the Orioles, have a 20% likelihood of profitable the division.

It doesn’t matter for seeding if a wild-card group has a greater file than a division winner, so although the Orioles and Rays are nearly sure to have the 2 finest information within the AL, the second-place group is locked in because the No. 4 seed as the highest wild-card entry.

The East champion will take pleasure in home-field benefit by the ALCS.

The No. 2 and No. 3 seeds would be the Central champion Minnesota Twins and the winner of the West, in some order. The West stays a three-team battle between the Houston Astros, Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners, and all have a greater file than the Twins, who want a surge down the stretch to realize the No. 2 seed and a bye into the ALDS.

The final two wild-card berths are also unclear as a result of the Toronto Blue Jays — the third-place group within the East — leads the Rangers and Mariners by a small margin and trails the West-leading Astros by solely a recreation. Three of these 4 groups will make the postseason.

The Dodgers’ incentive to win as many regular-season video games as doable is to make sure home-field benefit within the World Collection — which begins Oct. 27 — by ending with a greater file than the Orioles and Rays.

Additionally, attaining 100 victories for the fifth time since 2017 by going 9-5 or higher the remainder of the common season could be fairly an achievement contemplating the Dodgers gained 100 or extra video games solely 5 instances from 1900 to 2016.

Reaching triple-digit wins within the common season definitely is not any assure of changing into World Collection champion, nonetheless. Not one of the Dodgers’ earlier 9 100-victory seasons since 1900 resulted in a title — their 2020 World Collection championship got here after the pandemic-shortened 60-game common season.

And in two of the seasons, the Dodgers didn’t even win the NL pennant, ending second to the Giants in 1962 and to the St. Louis Cardinals in 1942.

Dodgers 100-win seasons since 1900

2022: 111-51, Misplaced NLDS to the Padres

2021: 106-56, Misplaced NLCS to the Braves

2019: 106-56, Misplaced NLCS to the Nationals

2017: 104-58, Misplaced World Collection to the Astros

1974: 102-60, Misplaced World Collection to the Athletics

1962: 102-63, Second place within the Nationwide League

1953: 105-49, Misplaced World Collection to the Yankees

1942: 104-50, Second place within the Nationwide League

1941: 100-54, Misplaced World Collection to the Yankees

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